The nominations have been announced. And a few quick thoughts:

Surprises?

At the minimum I thought The Dark Knight had a shot at Best Screenplay. The top spots were long shots at best, even though garnering neither Best Director or Best Picture nod is still a wee bit odd. 

I haven't seen it, but Frozen River was shown some love and wasn't forgotten. Little films like that have often been burried under the avalanche of hype generated for other films. It's always a good sign for independents when one can breakthrough.

No surprise?

Robert Downey, Jr.' and Heath Ledger's nominations for Best Supporting Actor. Downey's the best thing in Tropic Thunder and Hollywood could never live down the rep of overlooking Heath's performance. 

Milk, The Curious Case of Benjamin Button, The Reader and Slumdog Millionaire  have been on the radar for months, so any betting person, at best, only doubled their money. My money is on Curious Case initially racking up awards until either Milk or Slumdog delievers the knock out punch.

As per Oscar standards, very few longshots.

Huge excitement for us at the fest since The Visitor was our closing night film for 2008. Seeing Richard Jenkins nominated is a thrill. Just wish the film had gotten more love. 

More from us at the fest once we get to see the entire nomination list. 

So EW has revisited the last 25 years of Oscar, going back over the 1983, 1988, 1993, 1998 and 2003 ceremonies to reevaluate the worthiness of the winners and losers .

It's interesting how little the list changes overall, more than half the time EW and EWreaders confirm Oscars final pick.

Take a look at it yourself. I know for me, I'm among a vocal few who doesn't think Saving Private Ryan was robbed. A brillant opening does not an entire brillant film make. If that was so, Swordfish should have been the shiznick.