With Friday and Saturday reporting, AVATAR is sitting on a less than breathtaking opening weekend number of $52 million, likely to round up to $65 or $70 by weekend's close.

This film came saddled with great expectations--it has been hailed as the advent of the new age of cinema, nothing shy of THE JAZZ SINGER for a new generation, it  carried a price tag reportedly upward of $300 million, some estimates pit the research and marketing costs in the half billion range.  

 Haters and skeptics (disclosure: I'll include myself in the somewhat skeptical camp, especially after the lame trailers, and the weak AVTR Coke Zero marketing Web game failure) were surprised when the first blush of raves from legitimate press blasted through the fan boy hype-o-sphere and hater flame-a-blogs. 

LA Times' Kenneth Turan: "Whatever way you choose to look at it, Avatar's shock and awe demand to be seen. You've never experienced anything like it, and neither has anyone else."

Wall Street Journal's Joe Morgenstern: "Mr. Cameron's singular vision has upped the ante for filmed entertainment."

And most shockingly, NY Times' Manhola Dargis:  "James Cameron has turned one man’s dream of the movies into a trippy joy ride about the end of life -- our moviegoing life included -- as we know it."

Such high praise, coupled with the "must-see" buzz generated throughout the industry seems to have been met with a collective, "Yeah, yeah, I know.  I'll get around to it."

Did the East Coast blizzard affect it's numbers?  Of course.  As did the decision to open a week before Christmas, making the decision to head to the mall and watch a movie about as attractive as going to the dentist to pick up a toothbrush. 

Should the prospect of the most anticipated film of all time (of the century?) opening with weekend numbers shy of I AM LEGEND ($77.2) cause concern?  Time will tell.  Cameron and Fox are counting on AVATAR to carry the load over time, much like TITANIC, with a steady burn box office strategy built to last. Such a strategy could carry AVATAR to the top rungs of the all time box office ladder...note that LORD OF THE RINGS: RETURN OF THE KING December 2003 opening weekend of $72.6 carried the film to $377 million (#11 all time). STAR WARS 1: PHANTOM MENACE $64.8 May 1999 opening weekend resulted in $431 million (#6 all time). Cameron and Fox are hoping to replicate the strategy of these films and that of TITANIC, whose anemic opening weekend of $28 million propelled it to the #1 spot of $600 million.   

But times have changed since 1997--and TITANIC is no AVATAR.  Key to TITANIC's prolific success, much to the chagrin of fan-boys the world over, was repeat viewing by teenage girls.  In 2009/2010, the teenage girl demographic has been locked up by TWILIGHT: NEW MOON (a film whose staggering opening weekend of $142 million ranks #3 all time whose current gross of $271 million (though fading) continues to grow by a millions+ per week.

In the coming weeks, AVATAR faces the wide release of films that boast  female appeal NINE, SHERLOCK HOLMES, and IT'S COMPLICATED.

Final thought: Some pundits are already forcastking this year's Oscar® race as James Cameron vs. ex-wife Catherine Bigalow (THE HURT LOCKER).  I personally see this as so much wishful thinking on behalf of writers looking to stir the pot, but the"boys vs. girls" point is well taken. 

Does AVATAR have the long term cross-over appeal necessary to propel the film to the #1 spot?  Or did Cameron put all his eggs in a single basket?